An Update from Jeff Dobyns About COVID-19 and Market Volatility

In the midst of the current public health crisis due to coronavirus or COVID-19, this quick note is to encourage you to hang in there and stay strong. This is the type of volatility we have been expecting for some time now as we all knew that the market would have some short-term correction at some point.

March 9, 2020, was the eleventh anniversary of the crescendo of global panic that marked the bottom of the bear market of 2007-09.  It is ironic that the world has elected to celebrate this iconic anniversary with—you guessed it—another epic global panic attack.

After yesterday’s close (March 12, 2020) of 2480, the S&P 500 is down over 27% from its all-time high of 3,386 recorded on February 19. Declines of that magnitude are fairly common occurrences—indeed the average annual drawdown from a peak to a trough since 1980 is close to 14%.* But such a decline in barely a month is noteworthy, not for its depth but for its suddenness.

As we all know by now, the precipitants of this decline have been (a) the outbreak of a new strain of virus, the extent of which can’t be predicted, (b) the economic impact of that outbreak, which is equally unknown, and (c) most recently, the onset of a price war in oil. (That last one is surely a problem for everyone involved in the production of oil, but it’s a boon to those of us who consume it.)

The common thread here is unknowability: we simply don’t know where, when, or how these phenomena will play out. And in my experience, the thing in this world that markets hate and fear the most is uncertainty. We have no control over the uncertainty; we can control how we respond to it.  Or, ideally, how we don’t respond. Long-term, goal-focused investors like us focus on the big picture. If you have inquiries around the issue of putting cash to work, please give us a call.

On March 3, the billionaire investor Howard Marks wrote, “It would be a lot to accept that the US business world—and the cash flows it will produce in the future—are worth 13% less today than they were on February 19.”

And, the good news is that the Democrats, Republicans, and the White House appear to be working together to help provide relief for the coronavirus outbreak.

This video from our long-time friend Dave Ramsey (starts at about 40 seconds into the video) is a great reminder about the dangers of getting off of the roller coaster in the middle of the ride.  I think it is a great analogy—I do love riding roller coasters, but I am scared until it’s over…and then I join the kids for another ride. Please let me know if we can help you in any way!

Thanks,

Jeff Dobyns

President, Southwestern Investment Group | Financial Advisor, RJFS

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Jeffrey T. Dobyns

CFP®, CLU, CHFC

President, SageSpring 

Jeffrey T. Dobyns

President, SageSpring 

Beyond crunching numbers and investment strategies, at SageSpring, we’re about building relationships. When you encounter Founder & President of SageSpring, Jeff Dobyns, it’s easy to understand why this is at the very heart of who we are as a firm. You won’t find stuffy formalities with Jeff; instead, you can expect to find him sharing a warm smile, communicating a compelling vision, or patiently untangling life’s complex challenges with clients. He believes in truly getting to know clients, understanding their aspirations and priorities, and navigating their financial plans with a tailored, comprehensive approach. Our team members have often been caught taking notes on Jeff’s effortless relationship skills from a distance, and we admire them for striving to learn from one of the best. 

Jeff’s financial expertise and wisdom are the perfect match to his innate people skills. Jeff holds the prestigious CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTM certification, Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), and Chartered Financial Consultant (ChLU®) designations, and has held executive positions with financial planning firms for more than two decades. 

His dedication extends beyond the office to the boardroom and the local community, where Jeff is passionate about giving back. He serves as Chairman of the Board of Men of Valor, a prison ministry and mentoring program. Jeff also serves on the board of Send Musicians to Prison, which shares hope, healing and restoration with the imprisoned through musicians & artists. Jeff actively supports other initiatives in the community by sitting on the board of The Signatry of Middle Tennessee and the Halftime Institute of Nashville. 

Witnessing his four children, Gracyn, Hunter, Tanner, and Logan, excel on the field is almost just as rewarding, if not more, than celebrating the victories of seeing his clients overcome obstacles and build wealth. Spending weekends boating on the lake, hiking mountain trails, and fishing with his family are the moments Jeff cherishes most. It’s this grounded perspective that reveals the true meaning of wealth for Jeff: not just numbers on a page, but the freedom to create experiences that enrich your life and the lives of those you love. When you choose the Dobyns McMillin Wealth Team, you choose more than financial expertise. You choose a partner who champions your dreams, celebrates your victories, and walks besides you on the path to achieving your unique goals.

**Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER TM, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.